AST SpaceMobile shares fell sharply after a failed satellite launch, with the stock dropping nearly 12% in premarket trading on Monday. The decline followed an incident where Blue Origin, Jeff Bezos' space technology company, placed AST SpaceMobile's BlueBird 7 satellite into a lower-than-planned orbit on Sunday, resulting in the satellite being deemed lost. Blue Origin acknowledged the error and stated it was assessing the situation, but has not provided further updates since the satellite was officially lost [1].
The BlueBird 7 satellite would have been AST SpaceMobile's eighth launched into low-earth orbit and was carried on Blue Origin's third New Glenn rocket. According to AST, the cost of the lost satellite is expected to be covered by insurance. The company also stated it still plans to launch a satellite every one to two months in 2026 and expects BlueBird satellites 8, 9, and 10 to be ready for shipment within 30 days [1].
Analysts expressed concerns about the impact on AST's deployment targets and investor sentiment. William Blair analyst Louie DiPalma noted that reaching the goal of 45 satellites in orbit by year-end will likely be difficult now, but emphasized the value of the experience gained from integrating with New Glenn and working with Blue Origin. DiPalma also pointed out that only one satellite was lost, whereas future launches may carry up to eight satellites at a time [1].
Clear Street analyst Greg Pendy reiterated a buy rating on AST SpaceMobile but reduced his price target from $137 to $115, reflecting a 34% gain from Friday's close but significantly less than his previous forecast of a 60% jump. UBS analyst Christopher Schoell stated that the financial impact on AST would be limited, but highlighted that AST's share price performance is now closely tied to Blue Origin's success. Schoell expects uncertainty to weigh on investor sentiment until there is greater clarity, as the success of Blue Origin's New Glenn vehicle is seen as crucial for AST to meet its year-end deployment targets and 2027 revenue goals [1].
CONCLUSION
The failed satellite launch by Blue Origin has led to a sharp decline in AST SpaceMobile's share price and raised concerns about the company's ability to meet its deployment targets. While the financial loss is expected to be covered by insurance, analysts warn that investor sentiment may remain cautious until Blue Origin demonstrates greater reliability. The event underscores the importance of Blue Origin's future performance for AST's growth ambitions.