Silver price (XAG/USD) rebounded to approximately $64.10 during the early European trading session on Thursday, recovering from earlier losses as investors reacted to renewed optimism that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran established in April would remain intact despite recent hostilities [1]. The Wall Street Journal reported that US President Trump instructed aides to communicate to Iran via Qatar that the latest attacks were not intended to restart an all-out war, but were a response to the downing of a US Apache helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz [1]. Over the past two days, US Central Command (CENTCOM) launched attacks on Iranian targets, describing them as 'self-defense attacks' against Tehran's 'unwarranted and continued aggression,' following Trump's vow to retaliate for the helicopter incident [1].
Despite the geopolitical tensions supporting silver's price, intensified speculation about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is expected to exert downward pressure on the metal. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 71% probability that the Fed will implement at least one interest rate hike this year, which typically weighs on non-yielding assets like silver [1].
From a technical perspective, XAG/USD is trading slightly higher at around $64.10 but maintains a bearish near-term tone, as it remains well below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $71.92. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 32, just above oversold territory, indicating that downside momentum persists but may be losing intensity [1]. Initial resistance is at the 20-day EMA ($71.92), and a sustained recovery above this level would ease bearish pressure. On the downside, a drop below the March 23 low of $61.01 could see silver slide to $60, with the next major support at the October 16 high of $54.86 [1].
CONCLUSION
Silver's price has rebounded on hopes of continued US-Iran ceasefire, but faces headwinds from expectations of higher US interest rates. Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum remains dominant, with key resistance and support levels in focus. The market remains sensitive to both geopolitical developments and Federal Reserve policy signals.