The National Bank of Poland (NBP) cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% on March 4, 2026, despite ongoing global volatility [1]. ING’s Frantisek Taborsky characterized the move as dovish, noting that the central bank’s statement highlighted global uncertainties affecting inflation but lacked hawkish signals [1]. The NBP’s new forecast projects inflation to be close to its target by 2028, with solid GDP growth expected [1].
Market participants responded by removing one rate cut bet during the recent global sell-off, and the priced-in terminal rate has shifted to around 3.50% [1]. ING’s analyst suggests that while Governor Adam Glapinski’s upcoming press conference may be hawkish due to uncertain energy prices, a dovish stance poses a risk for the market [1].
Despite the rate cut, ING expects the Polish zloty (PLN) to remain resilient. The EUR/PLN exchange rate is anticipated to trade lower towards 4.260 if market sentiment improves and there is no escalation in the US-Iran conflict [1]. ING also notes that further rate cuts are possible, though their terminal rate forecast of 3.25% may be at risk [1].
CONCLUSION
The NBP’s 25bps rate cut signals a dovish policy stance, with inflation expected near target by 2028 and solid growth forecasts. Market reaction has been moderate, with the zloty expected to remain resilient and EUR/PLN potentially moving lower if sentiment improves. Further rate cuts are possible, but the terminal rate outlook remains uncertain.