TD Securities commodity strategists forecast that both Gold and Silver will face further corrections in the near term, citing sustained inflation expectations and delayed Federal Reserve easing due to the ongoing Middle East conflict [1]. Elevated opportunity costs and reduced regional capital are identified as immediate headwinds for precious metals, with the lack of Middle East capital in the gold market acting as a downside catalyst [1].
According to TD Securities, the continuation of the Middle East conflict is expected to keep inflation expectations elevated, driven by higher energy, fertilizer, and chemical prices. This environment makes it difficult for the Federal Reserve to implement rate cuts soon, thereby maintaining high opportunity costs for holding precious metals [1].
Strategists note that while both gold and silver may perform better later in the year, this is contingent on the cessation of the war, stabilization of oil prices, and a return to market pricing for Fed rate cuts. Once these conditions are met, and energy price shocks normalize, rates migrate lower, and the dollar weakens, TD Securities projects gold prices to return above $5,000 in the latter part of 2026 [1].
No specific market reactions or ticker symbols were mentioned in the article, and the forecast is based on the scenario of the Middle East conflict ending and subsequent macroeconomic shifts [1].
CONCLUSION
TD Securities expects continued near-term downside for gold and silver due to persistent inflation and delayed Fed easing caused by the Middle East conflict. However, they project a strong recovery for gold, potentially surpassing $5,000 by late 2026 if the conflict ends and macroeconomic conditions improve. Investors should monitor geopolitical developments and Fed policy signals for future precious metals performance.