Copper prices remain under pressure following the missed June 30 Section 232 tariff update, which removed a near-term supply risk and weakened short-term momentum, according to TD Securities analysts Ryan McKay and Bart Melek [1]. The absence of an official update from President Trump on recommendations for refined copper tariffs has led to further selling in the market, as the immediate supply risk event is now considered to be in the past [1].
Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) have responded by liquidating approximately 13% of their historic net length in copper, reflecting the shift in market sentiment and positioning [1]. The ongoing unwinding of Hormuz trade positions has also weighed heavily on aluminum, indicating broader impacts across industrial metals [1].
Despite the removal of the immediate supply risk, TD Securities notes that the continued risk of tariffs and inventory fragmentation will provide some support for copper prices going forward. However, a weakening short-term demand backdrop is likely to cap any significant upside for the metal [1].
CONCLUSION
The delay in the Section 232 tariff decision has reduced near-term supply risks for copper, prompting CTAs to cut positions and putting downward pressure on prices. While ongoing tariff and inventory risks may offer some support, weak demand is expected to limit any substantial price gains in the short term.