European gas prices are being supported at high levels due to a combination of low storage, suspended LNG exports from Qatar, and the end of the seasonal refilling phase, according to Norman Liebke at Commerzbank [1]. The TTF benchmark price is already above EUR 65 per MWh, with Commerzbank warning that a widening storage gap and ongoing Middle East tensions could push prices even higher on a sustained basis [1].
Currently, gas storage across the EU is just over 61%, which represents the lowest seasonal level since the data series began in 2009 [1]. In Germany, storage levels are at roughly 50%, which is 27 percentage points below the five-year average [1]. Commerzbank notes that the gap from the usual storage level is currently 17 percentage points, and if this gap widens further, the TTF benchmark could sustainably exceed the 65 EUR per MWh mark [1].
The bank also highlights that European LNG imports would need to increase significantly from current levels to achieve sufficient gas storage by the end of March next year [1]. Additional upward pressure on prices could result if tensions in the Middle East persist and Europe continues to compete with Asia for available LNG shipments [1].
CONCLUSION
European gas prices are likely to remain elevated due to historically low storage levels, ongoing supply disruptions, and geopolitical risks. Market participants should monitor storage trends and LNG import dynamics closely, as further tightening could drive prices higher.