U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he expects the Iran war to end within two to three weeks, stating that U.S. forces will 'hit' Iran 'extremely hard' during this period. This timeline was reiterated both in a Wednesday evening address and in comments to reporters at the White House, where Trump emphasized the war would conclude 'whether we have a deal or not' [1].
Since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, retaliatory actions from Tehran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have led to a dramatic surge in oil prices. Brent crude oil prices soared more than 60% over March, marking the largest monthly gain since the 1980s. Following Trump's 19-minute speech, Brent crude traded over 6.5% higher at approximately $107.79 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled just above $106 per barrel, up around 6% [1].
Analysts and market participants remain concerned about the potential for oil demand destruction, as prolonged high prices and limited supply could force consumers to reduce gasoline and diesel consumption or seek alternatives. Goldman Sachs analysts noted that if Middle East oil exports remain low, significant price-driven reductions in demand could occur in major markets like the U.S. and emerging markets such as South Africa, Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam. They also observed clearer demand destruction in aviation and Asian petrochemical industries [1].
Officials and market watchers warn that the market may not have fully priced in the time required to restore oil supplies, given the backlog at the Strait of Hormuz and the destruction of energy facilities in the region. European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde described market expectations for a swift recovery as 'overly optimistic,' stating there is 'no way' the Gulf's lost energy supply can be restored within months and warning that disruptions may last years [1].
CONCLUSION
The Iran conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz have triggered historic oil price surges and raised fears of demand destruction. Despite President Trump's assurances of a quick resolution, analysts and officials caution that supply disruptions may persist, with significant implications for global energy markets. The market impact is high, and uncertainty remains over the timeline for recovery.