The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline in the U.S. has surged by 31 cents in the past week, reaching $4.54 per gallon as of Wednesday, which is 52% higher than before the war with Iran began, according to AAA data [1]. The primary driver behind this increase is the ongoing conflict that has stranded oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for about one-fifth of the world’s crude oil supply [1]. Iran’s effective closure of the strait has led to the largest supply disruption in oil market history, according to the International Energy Agency, pushing oil prices as high as $112 a barrel in early April [1].
In mid-April, U.S. gasoline prices had fallen daily for almost two weeks amid optimism following the announcement of an initial ceasefire, which led to a corresponding drop in crude and gasoline spot prices, as noted by Rob Smith, director of global fuel retail at S&P Global Energy [1]. However, prices reversed and began climbing again as hostilities intensified and the strait remained severely constrained, maintaining upward pressure on both oil and gasoline prices [1].
The Energy Information Administration reported that in 2025, oil prices accounted for about 51% of the price of a gallon of gasoline in the U.S., underscoring the direct relationship between crude oil and gasoline prices [1]. Bob Kleinberg, adjunct senior research scholar at the Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy, observed that recent changes in gasoline prices have closely tracked those of WTI, the U.S. oil benchmark [1].
Oil prices fell below $100 a barrel on Wednesday after indications that the U.S. and Iran were moving closer to an initial agreement to end the war, suggesting that gasoline prices could also decrease if this trend continues [1].
CONCLUSION
The ongoing conflict with Iran and the resulting disruption at the Strait of Hormuz have driven U.S. gasoline prices up by 52% compared to pre-war levels, with oil prices peaking at $112 a barrel. While recent diplomatic progress has led to a slight easing in oil prices, the market remains highly sensitive to developments in the region.