New Zealand's Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated to 0.9% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) in Q1, maintaining annual inflation at 3.1% year-on-year (y/y), according to BNY’s Bob Savage [1]. Key contributors to the rise included petrol prices, which increased by 3.5%, pharmaceuticals up 17.7%, and confectionery up 6.2%. In contrast, international air transport and prepaid overseas accommodation saw declines of 7.0% and 4.0%, respectively [1]. Non-tradeable inflation was particularly strong, rising 1.1% q/q and 3.5% y/y, with electricity prices surging 12.5% and local authority rates up 8.8% [1].
The NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion for Q1 revealed a sharp drop in business confidence, with only a net 1% of firms expecting improved economic conditions, a significant decrease from 39% in Q4 2025 [1]. This decline is attributed to geopolitical tensions, specifically the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, which has led to shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting supply chains and causing fuel prices to surge [1].
Despite persistent cost pressures, inflation risks are described as currently contained. However, expectations are mounting for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to begin tightening monetary policy, with a 25 basis point Official Cash Rate (OCR) hike anticipated in July [1].
Market reactions were modest: the NZX 50 index rose 0.13% to 12,932, NZDUSD gained 0.477% to 0.5908, and the 10-year New Zealand Government Bond yield increased by 2.6 basis points to 4.617% [1].
CONCLUSION
New Zealand's inflation remains sticky, driven by strong non-tradeable components and rising fuel costs, while business confidence has sharply deteriorated amid geopolitical tensions. The market expects the RBNZ to respond with a rate hike in July, and initial market reactions have been muted but positive. Persistent cost pressures and cautious sentiment suggest ongoing challenges for the New Zealand economy.