ING's Chief Economist Lynn Song has revised the forecast band for the Chinese Yuan (CNY) against the US Dollar (USD), tightening it to a range of 6.67–6.92 for the remainder of 2026. This adjustment reflects the CNY's status as one of the top-performing currencies so far in 2026, even as the US Dollar remains firm [1]. The revision is attributed to several factors, including the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) efforts to maintain currency stability, robust Chinese export performance, a strong current account surplus, and expectations of a narrowing yield spread between the US and China [1].
Song notes that the PBoC has kept the USD/CNY fixings near 6.80 over the past month, following earlier, more gradual downward moves. This level is now considered a sensible midpoint for the forecast band in the second half of the year [1]. The analysis suggests that further CNY outperformance would depend more on US Dollar dynamics than on CNY-specific factors. If the Dollar weakens, the CNY may underperform relative to other currencies [1].
Market participants are already pricing in a hawkish Federal Reserve, modest PBoC easing, ongoing Middle East risks, and slowing Chinese growth. According to Song, substantial new catalysts would be required to push the CNY back toward the 7 level against the Dollar for the rest of the year [1].
CONCLUSION
ING's revised forecast band for USD/CNY reflects confidence in the Yuan's stability, supported by strong exports and current account surplus. However, further appreciation appears unlikely without significant new market catalysts, and future performance may hinge more on US Dollar movements than domestic Chinese factors.