China's export growth decelerated significantly in March 2026, with exports rising just 2.5% year-on-year in U.S. dollar terms, according to Chinese customs data. This figure fell short of the Reuters-polled analysts' median estimate of 8.6% and marked the slowest pace in six months, a notable drop from the combined 21.8% surge recorded in the first two months of the year [1]. The slowdown in exports was attributed to surging commodity and energy costs, driven by the Middle East conflict that has disrupted global supply chains [1].
In contrast, imports into China soared by 27.8% in March compared to a year earlier, representing the strongest growth since November 2021. This figure sharply exceeded expectations for an 11.2% increase and accelerated from the 19.8% growth seen in January and February combined [1]. The robust import performance highlights China's ongoing reliance on trade for economic growth, with net exports accounting for about a third of the country's economy in the previous year [1].
Rising global oil prices and higher input costs have begun to impact Chinese manufacturers, with factory-gate prices increasing by 0.5% in March—the first such rise in over three years. Despite these pressures, the consumer price index rose by a modest 1% year-on-year, indicating that domestic demand remains subdued [1]. Wang Jun, China's customs vice minister, described the trade environment as 'complex and severe' due to 'fierce fluctuation' in global oil prices [1].
Looking ahead, China is set to release its first-quarter GDP data on Thursday. Analysts surveyed by Reuters anticipate a 4.8% increase, up from the 4.5% growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025, which was a three-year low [1].
CONCLUSION
China's March trade data reveals a sharp divergence, with exports missing expectations and imports posting their strongest growth in over four years. Rising energy and commodity costs are pressuring manufacturers, while domestic demand remains weak. The upcoming GDP release will provide further insight into the resilience of China's economy amid these challenges.