Poland’s National Bank (NBP) Governor Adam Glapinski has shifted towards a more neutral and flexible monetary policy stance, moving away from earlier dovish hints of imminent rate cuts. This change was communicated during remarks at the G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank heads in North Carolina, where Glapinski emphasized that the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) is not pre-committed to any particular rate path and that policy decisions will remain data-driven and based on forecasts and the balance of risks [1].
The shift in tone comes after the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) surprised on the hawkish side and the Polish Zloty (PLN) underperformed compared to its Central and Eastern European (CE3) peers. Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes that the NBP is reacting to recent FX pressure, with the Zloty’s depreciation pushing the central bank onto the back foot. Despite the change in language, Glapinski did not reiterate previous dovish signals about imminent rate cuts, marking a subtle but important shift towards caution [1].
Ghose expects the MPC meeting on 9 September to result in unchanged interest rates, but questions remain about whether the NBP will formally transition to a more hawkish stance. The cautious approach may be insufficient to address PLN underperformance, as the NBP’s shift comes only after significant FX pressure has already materialized. The minor change in language is seen as potentially too late to effectively curtail the Zloty's weakness [1].
CONCLUSION
The Polish central bank's move towards a more cautious and flexible stance reflects growing concerns over the Zloty's underperformance and a hawkish CPI surprise. While rates are expected to remain unchanged at the upcoming MPC meeting, the market may view the shift as reactive rather than proactive, with limited immediate impact on PLN sentiment. Investors will be watching for further signals of a formal hawkish transition.