Silver (XAG/USD) is trading nearly flat, hovering just above the $74.00 mark after reaching session lows at $72.61, as bullish momentum fades in the wake of recent geopolitical developments [1]. The breakdown of peace talks between the US and Iran this weekend, coupled with US President Donald Trump’s intention to impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, has strengthened the safe-haven US Dollar and led to a drop in precious metals prices, including silver [1]. US negotiators cited Iran’s refusal to halt uranium enrichment as a critical issue, though a two-week ceasefire remains in place, keeping hopes for further negotiations alive [1].
The macroeconomic calendar is largely empty for Monday, but market participants are closely watching Tuesday’s release of the US Producer Prices Index (PPI) for March. This follows Friday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which highlighted inflationary pressures stemming from the Iran conflict and may provide further support for Federal Reserve hawks [1].
Technical analysis indicates that XAG/USD is holding just above the bottom of a rising channel established since late March, with momentum indicators such as the 4-Hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) retreating below the midline and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showing reinforced downside momentum [1]. A break below the channel bottom at $73.50 would confirm a Bearish Flag formation, targeting the March 23 low near $61.00, with interim support expected between $68.20 and $69.80 [1]. Conversely, a recovery above the channel bottom could signal stabilization and open the door for a test of resistance at $77.65 (April 8 high), $81.13 (April 1 high), and the channel top around $85.00 [1].
Silver is traditionally seen as a store of value and a hedge during periods of high inflation, though it is less popular than gold. Its price is influenced by geopolitical instability, recession fears, and interest rate movements, with recent events underscoring its safe-haven appeal [1].
CONCLUSION
Silver prices are currently subdued, reflecting fading bullish momentum and heightened geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. Technical signals point to potential downside risk unless stabilization occurs above key support levels. Upcoming US inflation data and ongoing geopolitical developments are likely to shape silver’s near-term trajectory.