Rabobank’s RaboResearch team, led by Michael Every and Joe DeLaura, has highlighted the risk that the ongoing Iran War could accelerate a shift from unified global oil markets toward fragmented pricing blocs. The analysts note that, historically, energy and foreign exchange markets have experienced similar fragmentation, and they warn that energy may increasingly be transported via supply chains constrained by geopolitical factors rather than market forces [1].
The report emphasizes that this is a scenario analysis, not a formal forecast, but flags Balkanisation as a significant risk. The team suggests that, regardless of the outcome of the Iran War, energy supply chains are already shifting and are likely to change further once the conflict ends. They propose that energy could become a strategic asset moving through supply chains determined by security pacts, payment currencies, and swaplines, similar to arrangements seen in parts of the 20th century [1].
Rabobank outlines one possible geostrategic response for the US: halting exports of refined products and potentially creating a closed loop of key energy producers and refiners, akin to the Soviet-era COMECON bloc. In such a scenario, these countries could benefit from abundant, cheap energy, while others might face significant shortages and price increases [1]. The report also notes that while the US is unlikely to abandon allies such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia/New Zealand for national security reasons, even a grouping including these net energy deficit economies would have roughly balanced oil demand and excess LNG [1].
On the other hand, the report points out that if China seeks to establish a new CNY-denominated energy bloc, it would need to source approximately 10.5 million barrels per day of crude oil, which is about the combined output of Saudi Arabia and Russia [1].
CONCLUSION
Rabobank’s analysis suggests that the Iran War could lead to a more fragmented global oil market, with energy supply chains increasingly shaped by geopolitical alliances and security considerations. While not a formal forecast, the scenario highlights potential risks of higher price volatility and supply shortages for countries outside emerging energy blocs.