Societe Generale analysts anticipate that the National Bank of Poland (NBP) will maintain its policy rate at 3.75%, with no changes expected through the second half of 2026 and into early 2027 [1]. This outlook is supported by inflation figures that are currently within the NBP's target range of 1.5% to 3.5%, with headline CPI at 3.1% year-over-year and core inflation at 3.0% in May [1]. Economic growth has also shown improvement, as first quarter GDP expanded by 0.6% quarter-over-quarter and 3.5% year-over-year [1].
Poland's finance minister, Domanski, has expressed approval of the recent inflation data and the upward revision to growth, highlighting the resilience of the domestic economy [1]. Despite the central bank's expected status quo, money markets are pricing in approximately 75 basis points of tightening by the NBP over the next twelve months, in contrast to expectations of 71 basis points of easing in Hungary [1].
The divergence between market expectations and the central bank's likely stance raises questions about the relative performance of the Polish zloty (PLN) and local bonds compared to the Hungarian forint (HUF) as the year progresses [1]. No specific analyst opinions regarding the outperformance of the PLN or HUF were provided, but the market's pricing suggests some anticipation of tighter monetary conditions in Poland [1].
CONCLUSION
Societe Generale projects a prolonged hold on rates by the National Bank of Poland, supported by targeted inflation and improved growth. However, market participants are pricing in future tightening, indicating some uncertainty about the central bank's trajectory. The resilience of the Polish economy and divergence from regional peers like Hungary remain key factors for investors.