The preliminary German and Eurozone flash HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for March is scheduled for release today at 08:30 and 09:00 GMT, respectively, with significant implications for the European currency and related markets [1]. The German Composite PMI is forecasted to decline from 53.2 in February, reflecting a slowdown in both manufacturing and services sectors. Specifically, Germany’s Manufacturing PMI is expected to fall to 49.8 from 50.9, signaling a return to contraction after briefly expanding last month. The Services PMI is estimated to drop to 52.5 from 53.5 [1].
For the Eurozone, the flash Composite PMI is anticipated to come in at 51.1, down from 51.9 in February, indicating moderate expansion in private sector output but with a decline in manufacturing and slower growth in services. The Services PMI is seen at 51.0, compared to 51.9 previously, while Manufacturing PMI is expected to decrease to 49.5 from 50.8, suggesting renewed contraction in manufacturing activity across the region [1].
Market reaction has been negative, with EUR/USD trading 0.22% lower near 1.1580 in the early European session. The pair remains pressured below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.16, maintaining a mildly bearish bias despite recent stabilization. Price action has shown a sequence of lower daily closes, and failed attempts to reclaim the 20-day EMA reinforce a downside-oriented structure. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45 signals persistent, though not extreme, bearish momentum [1].
Initial resistance for EUR/USD is noted at 1.1610, where the 20-day EMA converges with recent daily highs. A break above this level would be required to ease immediate downside pressure. Further resistance stands at the March 10 high of 1.1667. On the downside, immediate support is at 1.1510, guarding recent lows, with a break exposing an over seven-month low around 1.139 [1].
CONCLUSION
The anticipated slowdown in German and Eurozone PMIs has contributed to a bearish tone for EUR/USD, with the pair trading lower and technical indicators reinforcing downside momentum. Market participants are likely to remain cautious, awaiting the actual PMI releases for confirmation of the expected contraction and its impact on the euro.