DBS Group Research anticipates that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will slightly increase the slope of the Singapore Dollar (SGD) Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) policy band at its upcoming meeting on April 14, reversing last year's easing measures [1]. This policy adjustment is seen as a response to elevated global inflation, particularly driven by the ongoing Middle East conflict, and persistent high Brent crude prices, which remain near USD100 per barrel [1]. DBS notes that the MAS's policy focus has shifted toward addressing imported inflation, with the aim of preventing underlying price expectations from becoming de-anchored [1].
In line with these developments, DBS expects the MAS to raise its core inflation forecast to 1.5-2.5%, up from the previous range of 1-2%, and to increase the CPI-All Items projection to account for the current energy shock [1]. The advance GDP estimates for the first quarter of 2026 are also expected to be released alongside the MAS policy decision. DBS projects 1Q26 GDP growth at 5.4% year-on-year, a moderation from 6.3% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2025, and a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted contraction of -1.1%, compared to 2.1% growth in 4Q25 [1].
DBS describes the anticipated slope hike as a 'normalisation' of policy, reversing last year's reduction and aligning with the MAS's renewed focus on inflation management amid resilient export performance [1]. The bank underscores that the combination of strong but moderating GDP growth and elevated energy prices has prompted the MAS to prioritize inflation control in its upcoming policy statement [1].
CONCLUSION
DBS expects the MAS to tighten monetary policy by slightly increasing the SGD NEER slope, reflecting a shift toward inflation management amid high energy prices and resilient exports. The MAS is also likely to upgrade its inflation forecasts and report strong, though moderating, GDP growth. These moves signal a medium market impact, with a focus on stabilizing price expectations in Singapore.