Rabobank’s Michael Every has highlighted that the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to return to normal operations for up to three months, which will keep a significant portion of global oil and gas flows constrained [1]. The report points to risks including further war, demining delays, and potential NATO involvement, all of which contribute to a looming energy crunch and necessitate a revision of Rabobank’s macro and commodity forecasts [1].
Every notes that the new base case scenario is for Hormuz to remain disrupted for up to three months, potentially ending in a 'disputed' US victory but with lasting supply-side damage [1]. The report also discusses the possibility of an 'oil-for-oil' deal, which could provide Iran with vital foreign exchange but would reduce its leverage over the global economy once the 1,550 ships currently trapped behind Hormuz are able to exit, releasing a large one-off supply of energy and weakening Iran’s bargaining position [1].
Demining the Strait could take longer than 30 days, with some estimates suggesting up to six weeks, pushing a potential reopening to mid-July at the earliest [1]. There is also the possibility of US allies, including NATO members, assisting in physically reopening Hormuz, which could shorten the closure timeline but carries the risk of further energy supply-side damage if Iran retaliates, or even a wider conflict if Iran is supported by others [1]. Notably, as of May 19, NATO members were reportedly considering involvement if the strait remains closed by July, but this would require additional preparation and likely military engagement [1].
CONCLUSION
Rabobank’s analysis underscores the high risk of a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, with significant implications for global energy markets and supply chains. The potential for extended closure, military escalation, and delayed demining efforts points to a period of heightened uncertainty and volatility in oil and gas markets.