The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial shipping, despite Iran's public declaration that the sea lane is open, according to maritime freight and oil analysts cited by CNBC. Video footage from ship tracking firm Kpler shows that several tankers and cargo ships attempted to exit the strait on Friday but turned back, indicating that ships have not been given approval to pass through the designated route around Larak Island. Iran's conditions for passage remain unchanged, requiring ships to coordinate with its military and barring vessels or cargoes linked to hostile nations from transiting the strait. Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi initially stated the strait was 'completely open' for the remainder of the ceasefire with the U.S. and Israel, but Iranian media aligned with the Revolutionary Guard reiterated the same restrictive rules previously imposed by Tehran.
The market initially interpreted Iran's announcement as a breakthrough, leading to a sharp decline in oil futures contracts. West Texas Intermediate crude settled down 12% on Friday at $83.85 per barrel, while Brent crude futures finished the day down 9%. However, ongoing confusion from conflicting statements by Iranian officials and President Donald Trump, who asserted that the U.S. naval blockade of Iran remains in place, has left the actual status of the strait in question. Tehran has threatened to close the strait if the blockade is not lifted.
Maritime risk analyst Tomer Ranaan of Lloyd's List Intelligence noted that it is 'unclear whether there's a dramatic change here,' emphasizing that Iran still requires ships to transit through its territorial waters. Matthew Wright, senior freight analyst at Kpler, described the situation as a 'false dawn,' stating that the strait remains functionally closed. The world's largest shipping association, BIMCO, advised vessels on Friday to avoid the strait due to the threat of mines, with chief security officer Jakob Larsen stating the area is 'not declared safe for transit at this point.'
Analysts warn that while diplomatic overtures between the U.S. and Iran may temporarily soothe the oil futures market, they do not resolve the ongoing physical disruption to global energy supplies. The disruption is expected to worsen with each day the strait remains closed.
CONCLUSION
Despite Iran's announcement, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with oil tankers and cargo ships unable to pass and major shipping associations advising against transit. Oil prices fell sharply on initial hopes of a breakthrough, but analysts caution that the physical disruption to energy supplies persists and may intensify if the situation continues.