Southeast Asia is facing imminent fertilizer shortages as global prices spike, driven by disruptions caused by the Iran war. Much of the region relies on fertilizer imports that transit the Strait of Hormuz, which has become a critical chokepoint due to shutdowns leaving 1 million tons of fertilizer stranded in the Gulf [1]. Experts indicate that the current situation is significantly worse than the disruptions experienced at the onset of the Ukraine war in 2022 [1]. Thailand is particularly vulnerable, given its heavy dependence on imported fertilizers compared to other Southeast Asian countries [1].
The supply constraints and soaring prices are expected to have a direct impact on food production and prices throughout Southeast Asia. Indonesian pesticide prices are forecast to rise by up to 30% as a result of the Iran war, further intensifying challenges for the agricultural sector [1]. Market analysts highlight that the crisis is fueling volatility in fertilizer and related commodity markets, with uncertainty surrounding support and resistance levels for key products [1].
Regional governments are being urged to secure alternative supply chains and consider establishing strategic reserves to mitigate the impact. Experts warn that if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, additional price increases and shortages are likely, and a worse crunch could occur if the conflict escalates or supply routes are not restored soon [1]. Farmers and agribusinesses are advised to monitor price levels closely and consider hedging strategies to manage risk in the highly uncertain environment [1].
CONCLUSION
The Iran war and disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz have triggered a sharp spike in fertilizer prices and supply shortages across Southeast Asia, with Thailand and Indonesia particularly affected. The crisis is expected to impact food production and prices, prompting calls for strategic action by governments and agribusinesses. Market volatility is likely to persist as long as supply routes remain compromised.