The Australian Dollar (AUD) remained resilient against the US Dollar (USD), trading around 0.7040 during early European hours on Thursday, following the release of domestic employment data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) [1]. The unemployment rate in Australia rose to 4.3% in February, up from 4.1% in January and exceeding expectations of 4.1% [1]. Despite the higher unemployment rate, employment change surged by 48.9K, significantly above the revised January figure of 26.1K (previously 17.8K) and well above the forecast of 20.3K [1].
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) issued a warning about escalating tensions in the Middle East, noting that these could deliver a shock to the global economy. The central bank highlighted rising financial system risks and the potential for prolonged disruptions to oil and other markets, which could increase the likelihood of a significant economic downturn [1].
Technical analysis indicates that AUD/USD is consolidating within an ascending channel pattern, with the pair holding above the rising 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and below the nine-day EMA. This suggests short-term consolidation within an overall uptrend, with the 50-day EMA acting as support and the nine-day EMA capping near-term upside [1]. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits just below 50, signaling fading upside momentum but not an outright loss of bullish structure [1]. Immediate resistance is seen at the nine-day EMA of 0.7058, followed by 0.7187, the highest since June 2022. On the downside, support lies at the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 0.7000, followed by the 50-day EMA of 0.6980 [1].
In broader currency markets, the British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar today, while the Australian Dollar showed a 0.23% gain against the US Dollar and a 0.07% gain against the Euro [1].
CONCLUSION
Despite a rise in Australia's unemployment rate, the Australian Dollar has remained firm, supported by strong employment gains and technical factors. The RBA's warning about global risks adds a note of caution, but market sentiment remains moderately positive for AUD/USD. Investors should monitor upcoming resistance and support levels, as well as global developments, for further direction.