Silver (XAG/USD) halted its four-day winning streak on Monday, with prices easing to around $61.75 after reaching an intraday high of $63.28, the highest since June 23 [1]. This pullback follows a notable 5.55% rally last week, as buyers paused amid a firmer US Dollar, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) trading at 101.12, up 0.22% on the day [1]. The near-term outlook for silver remains supported by reduced expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate hike, a sentiment shift driven by weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls data released on Thursday [1].
Technically, silver remains capped below both its short- and long-term moving averages, with the 21-day SMA at $63.45 and the 200-day SMA at $70.06 acting as resistance levels [1]. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered from oversold territory but remains subdued at around 42, while the MACD has turned slightly positive, suggesting the recent rebound may be temporary within a broader downtrend [1]. Key resistance levels are identified at $63.45 (21-day SMA), $70.06 (200-day SMA), $71.05 (50-day SMA), and $74.81 (100-day SMA), with further barriers at $80 and $90 [1]. On the downside, notable support is seen at $55.00, with deeper structural support at the 100-week SMA ($48.34) and 200-week SMA ($36.24) [1].
On the weekly chart, silver maintains a bullish structural bias, trading well above the 100-week and 200-week SMAs, but momentum indicators such as the RSI (near 43) and negative MACD suggest that upside traction is waning despite the broader bullish backdrop [1]. To revive a more aggressive bullish phase, silver would need to reclaim the 50-week SMA near $64.35 and the 21-week SMA around $73.93 [1].
Overall, while easing Fed rate hike bets provide some support, technical resistance and subdued momentum indicators are capping silver's upside in the near term [1].
CONCLUSION
Silver's recent rally has paused as the metal faces resistance from key moving averages and a stronger US Dollar, despite support from easing Fed rate hike expectations. Technical indicators suggest limited upside in the near term, with significant resistance levels ahead and subdued momentum. The market remains cautiously optimistic, but further gains may require a shift in technical or macroeconomic conditions.