Commerzbank analysts report that ongoing heatwaves in Europe and Asia are expected to significantly increase electricity demand, particularly due to higher air conditioning usage, which in turn is likely to boost the need for gas-fired power and push natural gas prices higher [1]. The analysts note that this trend is not limited to Europe but is also relevant to Asia, especially in the coming months due to the El Niño weather phenomenon [1].
Additionally, an explosion at Qatar’s LNG complex is cited as a key factor that may delay the planned ramp-up of LNG exports to 80% of pre-war levels within two months, as recently announced by the facility’s operator [1]. Commerzbank suggests that this timeline could be overly optimistic, and the resulting tightness in LNG supply may support higher gas prices throughout the summer [1].
The combination of elevated gas demand and persistent supply problems, including those related to the Iran conflict, is expected to complicate efforts to refill European gas storage, further reinforcing upward pressure on prices [1].
CONCLUSION
Commerzbank analysts highlight that heatwaves and supply disruptions, particularly the Qatar LNG outage, are likely to keep natural gas prices elevated through the summer. The market faces ongoing challenges in balancing increased demand with constrained supply, suggesting continued price volatility.