The US economy added 115,000 jobs in April 2026, surpassing the consensus estimate of 62,000 jobs forecast by economists polled by LSEG, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% as expected [9]. Private payrolls contributed 123,000 jobs, outpacing the predicted 75,000, while government payrolls contracted by 8,000 and manufacturing shed 2,000 jobs against expectations for a gain [9]. Revisions to prior months showed February's loss deepened by 23,000 jobs and March's gain was revised up by 7,000, resulting in a net downward revision of 16,000 jobs for the two months [9].
Despite renewed military tensions between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz, market sentiment improved after President Donald Trump downplayed the risk of war, stating, “It’s just a love tap,” and confirming the ceasefire remains in effect, though he warned of stronger action if Iran does not agree to US terms [1][2][3][7]. Oil prices retreated, with WTI falling to around $92.00, down 2.76% on the day, as markets reduced the geopolitical risk premium [1][7]. Brent also remained below $100 [7]. Gold prices held firm near $4,722, supported by central bank demand—particularly from China, which added 260,000 troy ounces to reserves in April—and ongoing geopolitical risks, though upside was limited by elevated real yields and a firm US dollar [2][8].
Currency markets reflected a risk-on mood, with the Pound Sterling outperforming peers, up 0.43% against the US Dollar at 1.3610, and the New Zealand Dollar appreciating above 0.5950 [3][7]. The US Dollar Index traded 0.3% lower near 97.95 [3][6]. Analysts noted that the expectation of a continued US-Iran ceasefire and the stronger-than-expected jobs report contributed to improved risk appetite [1][3][7][9].
Regarding monetary policy, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged as Chairman Powell’s tenure nears its end [9]. Fed Governor Stephen Miran stated it is appropriate to cut interest rates, arguing that current policy is restraining the job market and that neither jobs data nor inflation expectations point to higher inflation [6]. However, Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad noted that while structural factors are negative for the dollar, near-term downside is limited by labor market stability, and the April jobs report was expected to validate steadier labor demand [4]. DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee highlighted that the Fed is emphasizing an extended pause, resisting aggressive tightening despite energy-driven inflation shocks, with April nonfarm payrolls expected in the 50k–100k range [5].
Analysts recommend monitoring upcoming data releases and geopolitical developments for potential shifts in labor market momentum, as the market remains sensitive to headlines from Washington and the Middle East [1][9].
CONCLUSION
The US labor market showed resilience in April, with job gains exceeding expectations and the unemployment rate steady. Easing geopolitical tensions and a dovish tilt from some Fed officials supported risk sentiment, though the central bank maintained its wait-and-see stance. Markets are likely to remain volatile, with attention focused on future economic data and developments in the Middle East.