Hungarian inflation in March 2026 surprised on the downside compared to expectations, according to ING economists Peter Virovacz and Zoltán Homolya, but remained above February’s decade-low level as reported by the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (HCSO) [1]. The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as fuel prices, showed improvement, declining to 1.9% year-on-year compared to the previous month [1]. Despite this positive surprise, ING highlights that risks remain elevated due to higher energy prices and volatility in the Hungarian Forint (HUF) [1].
ING's latest flash estimate suggests that the year-on-year inflation rate could rise to around 3.0-3.5% by the end of the first half of 2026, and reach approximately 4.5% by year-end, which is modestly above the National Bank of Hungary’s (MNB) 3% inflation target [1]. The economists note that inflation has begun to rise from its 10-year low, but the pace of acceleration is currently moderate [1].
The average inflation for 2026 is projected to settle somewhat above the central bank’s 3% target, indicating that inflationary pressures may persist throughout the year [1]. ING stresses that while the inflation shock has been contained, ongoing risks from energy prices and currency volatility could influence the trajectory of inflation in Hungary [1].
CONCLUSION
Hungarian inflation is expected to reaccelerate in 2026, with ING projecting CPI to reach around 4.5% by year-end, above the central bank's target. Although March's inflation was lower than anticipated, risks from energy prices and currency volatility remain. The market takeaway is a cautious outlook, with moderate acceleration in inflation and persistent risk factors.