The Euro (EUR) strengthened against the US Dollar (USD) and Japanese Yen (JPY) on Thursday, despite the release of weaker-than-expected Eurozone Retail Sales data for April. Retail Sales in the Eurozone declined by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding the anticipated 0.3% drop, while March's figure was revised sharply higher to a 0.8% increase from a previously reported 0.1% decline. On an annual basis, Retail Sales grew by 1%, surpassing the 0.3% estimate but slowing from the prior 2.1% reading, which was also revised higher from 1.2% [1][2][4].
The Euro's resilience was attributed to a combination of factors. Market sentiment improved moderately following news of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, pending confirmation by Hezbollah, which eased demand for the safe-haven US Dollar and supported risk assets, including the Euro. This optimism offset the negative impact of the weak retail sales data [1][2][3]. As a result, EUR/USD rebounded to the 1.1630 area, trading 0.25% higher on the day, while EUR/JPY climbed to around 185.85, up 0.12% [1][2][4]. The Euro was also the strongest performer against the Canadian Dollar in today's trading [2][4].
Expectations for further monetary tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB) provided additional support for the Euro. Investors continue to price in a 25-basis-point rate hike at the ECB's June meeting, with a Reuters poll indicating the deposit rate could rise to 2.25%, and another increase likely in September. However, analysts at BNY cautioned that a more hawkish ECB may not necessarily lead to sustained Euro gains [4].
Technical analysis suggests EUR/USD remains in a neutral to mildly bearish stance, consolidating within a range between 1.1570 and 1.1660, with resistance at 1.1660 and support at 1.1600. The EUR/USD pair is also trading inside a Descending Triangle pattern, holding below the 20-period EMA at 1.1648 [1][2].
On the Japanese side, the Yen remains supported by expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue normalizing monetary policy, with Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterating the intention to raise rates as warranted. Japanese authorities have also signaled readiness to intervene in the FX market if Yen weakness intensifies, which could cap further EUR/JPY gains [4].
Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar reversed most of its daily losses against the US Dollar as Middle East peace hopes improved risk sentiment, though risk appetite remains subdued due to a lack of progress in the US-Iran peace process. The USD/CAD pair traded just above 1.3900, down from eight-week highs of 1.3925, but still up 0.8% on the week [3].
CONCLUSION
Despite disappointing Eurozone Retail Sales data, the Euro advanced against major currencies, buoyed by improved market sentiment following Middle East ceasefire news and expectations of further ECB rate hikes. However, analysts caution that a hawkish ECB may not guarantee sustained Euro strength, and technical indicators suggest the EUR/USD remains range-bound. Market participants remain attentive to central bank actions and geopolitical developments for further direction.