The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakened against the US Dollar (USD), with the AUD/USD pair trading near 0.7080 during Asian trading hours on Friday, following the release of Australian employment data showing a rise in the unemployment rate. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australia's unemployment rate increased to 4.3% in February from 4.1% in January, surpassing market expectations of 4.1% [1]. This softer employment data led money markets to lower the probability of a May 2026 rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) from 61% to 57% [1].
Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced on Friday that it would leave its benchmark Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged, with the one-year LPR at 3.00% and the five-year LPR at 3.50% [1][2]. The market reaction to the PBOC's decision was muted, with the AUD/USD trading 0.08% lower on the day at 0.7081 at the time of writing [2].
The Federal Reserve (Fed) also held its interest rates steady at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75% following its March meeting, with the median "dot plot" projection suggesting one 25-basis-point rate cut later in 2026, though some officials now expect no cuts at all this year [1]. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that the ongoing war in Iran has created an "energy shock" and heightened uncertainty, complicating the path for future policy [1].
The combination of rising unemployment in Australia and unchanged rates from the PBOC has cooled expectations for RBA rate hikes, which could weigh further on the Australian Dollar [1].
CONCLUSION
The Australian Dollar weakened following a higher-than-expected unemployment rate, while the PBOC's decision to keep Loan Prime Rates unchanged had a limited immediate market impact. Lowered expectations for RBA rate hikes and global central bank caution suggest continued pressure on the AUD. Investors will likely monitor upcoming economic data and central bank signals for further direction.