West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on NYMEX traded steadily around $102.25 during the European trading session on Friday, following a nearly two-week rally that paused near $107.35 on Thursday [1]. The recent strength in oil prices is attributed to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for almost 20% of the global energy supply. The closure is expected to persist, as United States President Donald Trump has rejected Iran’s proposal and emphasized the continuation of Washington’s naval blockade on Iranian sea ports [1].
Despite the bullish supply-side factors, hawkish statements from global central banks regarding monetary policy have raised concerns about future oil demand. Central banks have indicated intentions to tighten monetary conditions in the near term, citing upside inflation risks amid already elevated oil prices [1].
From a technical perspective, WTI remains bullish in the near term, trading well above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $95.15. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 60.95, indicating ongoing buying pressure but not yet reaching overbought territory. Key support is identified at the 20-day EMA, with a potential pullback expected to attract dip-buying interest. A daily close below this level could signal a loss of immediate bullish momentum and expose the price to deeper corrections toward $90.00. On the upside, a break above the April 30 high at $107.35 could pave the way for a rally toward the multi-year high of $113.28 [1].
CONCLUSION
WTI oil prices are currently supported by supply disruptions due to the Strait of Hormuz closure and remain technically bullish above key moving averages. However, concerns over tighter global monetary policy could weigh on future demand. The market is closely watching for a breakout above recent highs or a reversal below support levels to determine the next major move.