TD Securities maintains a constructive outlook on the South African Rand (ZAR), emphasizing that domestic challenges have not led to sustained weakness in the currency. The firm notes that the USD/ZAR downtrend remains intact, with gold prices and global risk sentiment acting as the primary drivers for the ZAR's performance [1].
Despite new domestic political corruption allegations emerging in Q2 '26, the USD/ZAR exchange rate largely ignored these headlines, indicating market resilience to local political developments [1]. Additionally, an unexpected decision by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to hold rates briefly pushed USD/ZAR above the 200-day simple moving average in July, but the market quickly moved past this, driving the pair back below 16.00 in August [1].
TD Securities highlights that as long as gold prices remain supported above $4,000 per ounce and global equity sentiment stays resilient, the ZAR offers attractive carry opportunities. The firm continues to view any rallies in USD/ZAR as opportunities to sell, reinforcing their positive stance on the Rand under current macro conditions [1].
CONCLUSION
TD Securities sees the South African Rand as well-supported by strong gold prices and positive global risk sentiment, with domestic issues having limited market impact. The firm recommends selling into USD/ZAR rallies, provided gold remains above $4,000/oz and equity sentiment holds. Overall, the outlook for ZAR remains constructive under these conditions.