According to TD Securities' Bart Melek, recent weaker US jobs data and a reduced likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 have propelled gold prices above $4,100 per ounce [1]. The bank observes that gold has broken through resistance in the $4,050/oz to $4,126/oz range and expects the precious metal to establish a higher trading range, with near-term upside projected toward $4,280/oz [1]. Support is seen holding near $3,900/oz, and a break below this level is considered unlikely as long as the prospect of an early Fed funds rate hike remains off the table [1].
Melek notes that the combination of weakening job creation and sharply falling oil prices has reduced the urgency for the Federal Reserve to raise policy rates, which in turn is easing inflationary pressures in the months ahead [1]. However, he cautions that lingering oil-driven inflation risks could delay any significant rally toward the bank's $5,300/oz target until next year [1]. The report highlights that while the risk of higher interest rates has diminished, it has not disappeared entirely, and persistent inflation—especially if oil prices rise due to low global inventories—remains a concern [1].
TD Securities maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook, expecting gold to rally toward resistance at $4,280/oz in the near term but not to reach the $5,300+/oz target until next year due to ongoing inflationary pressures and potential for higher oil prices [1]. The bank is not "super bullish" on gold at this stage, reflecting a balanced view between supportive macroeconomic factors and lingering risks [1].
CONCLUSION
TD Securities sees gold establishing a higher trading range in the near term, supported by a softer Fed outlook and easing inflationary pressures. However, persistent oil-driven inflation risks are expected to delay a move toward the $5,300/oz target until next year. The market takeaway is a cautiously optimistic outlook for gold, with upside potential capped by ongoing inflation concerns.