Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley has highlighted a positive outlook for the Swedish Krona (SEK) against the Euro (EUR), citing Sweden’s resilient economy, stronger-than-expected GDP data, and a hawkish shift in the Riksbank’s policy stance as key drivers [1]. Foley notes that recent monthly GDP figures have surpassed expectations, and the market is now fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Riksbank within the next three months [1].
Statements from Riksbank officials reinforce this hawkish outlook. Last month, Seim indicated support for a rate increase at the November policy meeting, while Governor Thedeen described a November rate hike as 'reasonable' and suggested that further increases in 2025 are possible, though subject to uncertainty [1]. Foley also points to Sweden’s sound fiscal position, including low national debt and ongoing fiscal support measures, as additional factors underpinning the SEK [1].
From a technical perspective, the EUR/SEK pair is currently finding support at the 50-day simple moving average around 11.16, with a potential move lower to the 11.07 area if this support is breached [1]. Rabobank forecasts EUR/SEK returning to 11.00 over a three-month horizon, reflecting expectations for SEK appreciation [1].
No immediate market reactions or analyst opinions beyond Rabobank’s forecast are discussed in the article [1].
CONCLUSION
Rabobank expects the Swedish Krona to strengthen against the Euro, driven by Sweden’s robust economic data and a hawkish Riksbank outlook. The prospect of a November rate hike and sound fiscal fundamentals are seen as supportive for the SEK. Technical analysis suggests further gains for the Krona if current support levels are breached.