Novo Nordisk raised its full-year outlook, now expecting adjusted sales and operating profit to be down 6% to flat at constant exchange rates, an improvement from its previous guidance of a decline between 4% and 12% for both metrics [1]. The company's quarterly results beat expectations, but analysts attributed the outperformance to rebate adjustments and other temporary factors, rather than underlying business strength [1]. Obesity drug sales were broadly in line with expectations, while oral Wegovy slightly missed forecasts [1].
Despite the improved guidance, Novo Nordisk's shares fell as much as 5% in Copenhagen morning trading and its American depositary receipts dropped 6% in after-hours trading following the earlier-than-expected release of its quarterly report [1]. Analysts from Citi commented, 'Overall nothing to inspire,' and Jefferies noted that the guidance increase left little room for consensus sales estimates to move higher [1].
Investor concerns were further heightened by another mixed clinical result for Novo's next-generation weight-loss drug CagriSema, which reinforced doubts about the company's longer-term pipeline and growth prospects, especially as competition from Eli Lilly intensifies [1]. Eli Lilly's rival obesity medicines, Zepbound and Mounjaro, have rapidly gained market share, outpacing Novo's American depositary receipts over the past 12 months [1].
CEO Mike Doustdar highlighted the Wegovy product portfolio as a key growth driver, citing over 5 million prescriptions for the Wegovy pill in the US since launch, as well as encouraging early uptake in markets outside the US and the rollout of Wegovy high dose [1]. However, the company's Danish shares had already fallen about 5% year-to-date and were down nearly 70% from their mid-2024 peak, despite some recovery following the Wegovy pill launch [1].
CONCLUSION
Novo Nordisk's raised guidance and continued growth in its Wegovy portfolio failed to reassure investors, as shares declined on concerns about the sustainability of its obesity business and pipeline. Intense competition from Eli Lilly and mixed clinical results for new drugs continue to weigh on market sentiment. The outlook remains cautious as analysts see limited upside in consensus estimates.