West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil traded around $68.65 on Friday, marking a 0.30% daily gain as it recovered part of its recent losses. This uptick was largely attributed to a weaker US Dollar, which followed softer-than-expected US employment data. The Nonfarm Payrolls report for June revealed that the US economy added only 57,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 110,000. This weaker labor market data reduced expectations for further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve, thereby supporting USD-denominated commodities such as oil [1].
Geopolitical developments in the Middle East continued to influence market sentiment. Indirect talks between the United States and Iran are ongoing, though the latest negotiations in Doha did not yield a lasting agreement. US President Donald Trump stated on Thursday that Iran had "accepted nearly everything we require," while Qatar reported positive progress in the discussions. However, risks remain elevated, as Iran’s joint military command warned that any US interference in the Strait of Hormuz would trigger a "decisive and swift response" [1].
Commerzbank analysts commented that the recent weakness in oil prices reflects market expectations of a future supply surplus, rather than a deterioration in underlying fundamentals. They noted that currently available data does not indicate an oversupplied market. Upcoming Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts and future OPEC+ production decisions are expected to be key catalysts for oil prices moving forward [1].
CONCLUSION
WTI crude oil prices rebounded modestly on Friday, supported by a weaker US Dollar and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While market expectations of a future supply surplus have weighed on prices recently, analysts suggest that fundamentals remain stable, with upcoming EIA forecasts and OPEC+ decisions likely to shape future price movements.