The National Bank of Poland (NBP) maintained its policy rate at 3.75%, as anticipated by market participants, and provided limited new guidance in its statement, shifting investor focus to Governor Adam Glapinski’s upcoming press conference scheduled for 3pm local time [1]. ING’s Frantisek Taborsky noted that the market is already pricing in approximately 85 basis points of tightening, making the threshold for a hawkish surprise quite high [1].
ING expects the tone from the NBP to be somewhat more hawkish than in July, reflecting higher inflation and a firmer economic outlook. However, given the current market expectations, ING foresees some easing in rate expectations and a potential rise in the EUR/PLN exchange rate, possibly moving back above 4.320. This movement could be further supported by record gas prices, which add pressure to the Polish Zloty [1].
The NBP’s decision and limited guidance leave the zloty vulnerable, with ING highlighting the possibility of currency weakness against the euro in the near term [1].
CONCLUSION
The NBP’s unchanged rate and lack of new guidance have left the Polish Zloty exposed to potential weakness, especially as markets adjust rate expectations. ING anticipates a rise in EUR/PLN, possibly above 4.320, driven by both central bank signals and elevated gas prices. Investors are now awaiting Governor Glapinski’s press conference for further clarity.