OPEC+ announced an increase in oil output by 188,000 barrels per day for June during its first meeting since the United Arab Emirates (UAE) departed the group on May 1, 2026 [1]. This output hike is slightly lower than the 206,000 barrels per day increase announced in the previous month and does not include the UAE's share, as the country has officially left OPEC+ following a review of its production policy and capacity [1]. The seven participating countries in the agreement are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, who collectively committed to the new production adjustment as part of their ongoing efforts to support oil market stability [1].
The oil market has been under pressure since the Iran war began on February 28, which led to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil and gas shipments [1]. Despite the restricted supply, oil prices fell on Friday after Iran submitted an updated peace proposal to mediators in Pakistan, raising hopes for a potential settlement with the U.S. U.S. crude oil futures dropped 3% to close at $101.94 per barrel, while Brent crude lost nearly 2% to settle at $108.17 per barrel. Both benchmarks remain nearly 78% higher since the start of 2026 [1].
U.S. President Donald Trump commented that he was aware of the concept of a deal with Iran but was awaiting the exact wording, cautioning that the possibility of renewed strikes on Iran remained if Tehran did not comply [1]. A senior Iranian official indicated that Iran's proposal, which Trump has so far rejected, would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the U.S. blockade of Iran, with discussions on Iran's nuclear program postponed for later [1].
The UAE's exit from OPEC+ has intensified concerns about future production levels, as the country was the cartel's third-largest producer as of February, following Saudi Arabia and Iraq [1]. The UAE's departure marks a significant shift in OPEC+ dynamics, given its influential role in the group over nearly sixty years [1].
CONCLUSION
OPEC+'s decision to modestly increase output comes amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and the notable departure of the UAE, which has heightened uncertainty in the oil market. Despite the output hike, oil prices have retreated on hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough between Iran and the U.S., though volatility remains elevated. The market is closely watching for further developments in both OPEC+ policy and Middle East geopolitics.