The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has announced its decision to leave the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) after nearly 60 years of membership, with the exit effective May 1, 2026 [1][2]. The official statement from the UAE cited its 'long-term strategic and economic vision' as the reason for the departure [1]. ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey described the UAE's exit as a significant blow to OPEC and noted it is the highest-profile departure from the group in recent years [2].
The UAE currently has an oil production capacity of approximately 4.85 million barrels per day (b/d) and aims to increase this to 5 million b/d by 2027 [2]. However, ING analysts emphasized that this additional capacity cannot be fully utilized until there is a resolution in the Persian Gulf that allows for uninhibited energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz [2]. As a result, the analysts believe the UAE's exit will have limited short-term impact on the oil market due to ongoing disruptions in the region [2].
Looking ahead, ING revised its Brent crude oil price forecasts higher, expecting ICE Brent to average $104 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026 and $92 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 [2]. The analysts suggest that, in the medium to longer term, the UAE's departure will increase global oil supply, which could push the Brent forward curve into deeper backwardation [2]. In the near term, however, they highlight that the main driver for oil prices remains the situation in the Persian Gulf and the timing of a resumption in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz [2].
CONCLUSION
The UAE's planned exit from OPEC marks a major shift in the global oil landscape, with significant long-term implications for supply and pricing. While immediate market impact is limited due to regional disruptions, analysts expect higher oil prices and increased supply potential once Persian Gulf flows normalize. Market participants should closely monitor developments in the region as the 2026 exit date approaches.