Oil prices have surged more than 40% since the onset of the Iran conflict, causing significant volatility in global energy markets and raising concerns about further increases in U.S. gasoline prices [1]. The U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude closed at $99.64 a barrel on Friday, remaining elevated despite being on track for its first weekly decline in over a month; prices are still sharply higher than pre-conflict levels [1]. Analysts estimate that supply disruptions linked to U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have removed approximately 10 million to 11 million barrels per day from global markets, tightening supply and fueling the rally [1].
Market experts, including Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group and Michael Mische from the University of Southern California, warn that consumers have not yet felt the full impact of higher crude prices, as there is typically a lag before these costs filter through to retail gasoline prices [1]. Both analysts predict that pump prices could continue to rise in the near term, even if oil stabilizes, due to this lag and ongoing supply disruptions [1]. The national average price for regular gasoline has already increased to about $3.98 per gallon, up roughly 6 cents from a week ago and nearly $1 higher than a month ago, according to AAA and GasBuddy data [1].
Geopolitical uncertainty remains a key driver, with the U.S. extending a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—a critical route for global oil shipments—and considering additional military action. Analysts note that prices could fall if the conflict eases, but are likely to remain above pre-conflict levels; a prolonged escalation could push prices even higher [1]. Despite the supply shock, Flynn describes the increase as "relatively orderly," while Mische highlights that strong domestic U.S. production has helped cushion the impact [1].
Seasonal factors are also contributing to higher gasoline prices, as the transition to more expensive summer blends increases refining costs and may keep pump prices elevated even if crude prices stabilize [1].
CONCLUSION
The Iran conflict has triggered a sharp surge in oil prices, with supply disruptions and geopolitical uncertainty driving the market. Analysts expect gasoline prices to continue rising in the coming weeks due to lagged effects and seasonal factors, with the potential for further volatility if the conflict escalates. Strong U.S. production has helped mitigate some impacts, but consumers should prepare for sustained higher fuel costs.