According to OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong, gold has rebounded in choppy trading conditions, driven by a fragile ceasefire deal between the US and Iran and direct talks between Israel and Lebanon [1]. The strategists note that US nominal and real yields have fallen, which is supportive of gold prices, and risk sentiment has improved across asset classes including equities, high-beta FX, and gold [1].
OCBC highlights key resistance levels for gold at 4850, 4915, and 5023, with support at 4670 and 4250 [1]. The bank sees risks to gold prices somewhat skewed to the upside, given the current geopolitical developments and yield movements [1].
The strategists emphasize that the next move for gold will depend on whether the ceasefire holds and if lower oil prices create room for dovish Federal Reserve repricing [1]. They caution that geopolitical headlines can swing both ways, potentially impacting risk sentiment and gold prices [1].
CONCLUSION
Gold has rebounded on improved risk sentiment and falling yields, with OCBC noting upside risks amid a fragile ceasefire. The sustainability of the price move depends on geopolitical developments and potential Fed policy shifts. Investors should monitor resistance and support levels as outlined by OCBC.