The UK is set to release key economic data on Thursday, including the monthly GDP print, Trade Balance, and Industrial Production figures, all scheduled for 06:00 GMT by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) [1]. Market expectations are for the UK economy to have expanded by 0.1% in February, an improvement from the previous month's flat reading [1]. Manufacturing Production, which constitutes approximately 80% of total Industrial Production, is anticipated to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, up from a 0.1% increase in January [1]. However, total Industrial Production is expected to remain unchanged at 0.0% MoM, compared to a -0.1% reading previously [1]. On an annualized basis, Industrial Production is forecast to contract by 0.9%, a reversal from 0.4% growth in the prior month, while manufacturing output is expected to fall by 0.3% versus a 1.3% increase last month [1]. The UK Goods Trade Balance is projected to show a deficit of £20.02 billion in February, widening from a £14.449 billion deficit in the previous month [1].
Market participants are closely watching these releases for their potential impact on GBP/USD. A stronger-than-expected set of UK macro data could support the British Pound, while weaker data may be offset by expectations that rising energy prices could revive inflation and prompt the Bank of England (BoE) to adopt a more hawkish policy stance [1]. Additionally, the prevailing US Dollar selling bias suggests that the path of least resistance for GBP/USD remains to the upside [1].
From a technical perspective, GBP/USD has recently broken through the 1.3415-1.3425 confluence resistance, which includes the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-March decline, triggering bullish sentiment among traders [1]. The pair has also shown strength above the 1.3500 psychological mark, coinciding with the 50% retracement level, further validating the near-term positive outlook [1]. Momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at around 63 and a positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram reinforce the bullish bias, suggesting buyers maintain control as long as price holds above key resistance levels [1].
No explicit forward-looking statements or analyst opinions are provided beyond the technical and fundamental outlooks discussed above [1].
CONCLUSION
The upcoming UK economic data releases are expected to provide important direction for GBP/USD, with market sentiment currently favoring the upside due to technical strength and expectations of a hawkish BoE response to inflation risks. Traders are advised to monitor the data closely, as any surprises could trigger significant moves in the currency pair.