Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose anticipates that the National Bank of Poland (NBP) will keep its base rate unchanged for an extended period, with forward markets having already priced out medium-term rate cuts following the energy price shock related to the Iran conflict [1]. The NBP is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision later today, and it is unanimously expected that the base rate will remain unchanged, both in the immediate term and likely for a longer horizon [1].
The shift in market expectations occurred when the energy price shock from the Iran conflict materialized, leading to the removal of rate cut bets for the medium term. Most members of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) have indicated that the rate cut in March was likely the last for the foreseeable future [1]. NBP chief Adam Glapinski expressed optimism in April that the current inflation shock may be more benign than the one following the Russia–Ukraine war, supporting the base-case scenario of no imminent interest rate changes [1].
The upcoming press conference is expected to provide further insights into how Glapinski and the MPC are assessing the current economic environment. Commerzbank notes that as long as a potential deal between the US and Iran continues to be discussed and oil prices react favorably, the NBP is unlikely to consider a rate hike [1]. Policymakers have indicated that they will wait until at least the July meeting to review updated inflation projections before making any further decisions [1].
Overall, the current stance is seen as modestly supportive for the Polish Zloty (PLN), with the central bank adopting a wait-and-see approach amid mixed inflation signals and a more stable outlook compared to previous geopolitical shocks [1].
CONCLUSION
The National Bank of Poland is widely expected to keep its base rate unchanged, with policymakers signaling a cautious approach amid mixed inflation data and recent energy shocks. This stance is viewed as modestly supportive for the Polish Zloty, with further policy decisions likely deferred until updated inflation projections are available in July.