The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has announced its decision to leave OPEC and OPEC+, a move described by the country's energy minister, Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei, as a strategic economic decision rather than a political one [1]. According to Mazrouei, the decision followed a comprehensive assessment of the UAE's national production policy and future capabilities, and was made solely in the national interest, with a focus on maintaining market stability and upholding the UAE's role as a reliable energy supplier [1].
The UAE, a member of OPEC since 1967, was considered the most influential member after Saudi Arabia, possessing significant spare production capacity to influence oil prices and respond to supply shocks [1]. Before the ongoing war, the UAE produced just over 3 million barrels per day (BPD), in line with OPEC+ targets, and had set a target capacity of 4.9 million BPD. However, current production has dropped to between 1.8 and 2.1 million BPD due to the war [1]. Together with Saudi Arabia, the UAE controlled a majority of the world's total spare capacity of over 4 million BPD, making their roles critical during periods of market distress [1].
Following the announcement, oil prices rose on Friday amid speculation regarding geopolitical tensions, with Brent crude futures for July climbing more than 3% to close at $109.26 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for June advancing over 4% to settle at $105.42 per barrel [1]. Brent crude prices are up 74 percent year-to-date, though still below the late April high of $118 a barrel [1].
In a related development, Abu Dhabi announced it is accelerating the construction of the new West-East pipeline to Fujairah, aiming to double the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's (ADNOC) export capacity and bypass the Strait of Hormuz. The pipeline is expected to come online in 2027, reflecting the UAE's commitment to expanding its oil export infrastructure amid ongoing global energy supply concerns [1].
CONCLUSION
The UAE's exit from OPEC marks a significant shift in the global oil market, driven by economic strategy and a focus on national interests rather than political motives. The move, coupled with plans to expand export capacity, has contributed to a notable rise in oil prices and signals the UAE's intent to maintain its influence as a major energy supplier.