Standard Chartered economists Tommy Wu and Hunter Chan report that the Offshore Renminbi (CNH) has exhibited stable performance, with the Renminbi Globalisation Index (RGI) remaining largely flat between November and January following gains in August-October [1]. The stability is attributed to renewed appetite for Renminbi assets, relatively stable currency performance, and policy support under the 15th Five-Year Plan. The RGI has stabilized since mid-2025, after fluctuations caused by US-China tariff uncertainty, and the trade truce reached in November helped improve market sentiment and confidence in the Renminbi [1]. Increased Dim Sum bond issuance and greater Renminbi usage for trade settlement have also contributed to the RGI’s stable performance. Standard Chartered expects a steady uptrend in global Renminbi usage this year, supported by a widening range of Renminbi assets and ongoing policy efforts by mainland China and Hong Kong authorities [1].
BNY Strategist Geoff Yu highlights a surprising surge in demand for the Chinese Yuan (CNY) since the conflict began, noting that underhedged positions have been cleared and Chinese assets, particularly equities, have held up well [2]. Hedging levels in the currency are now around 30% below the rolling 1-year average, indicating normalization of positioning [2]. Yu expects careful official management of the CNY and gradual portfolio reallocation into Chinese bonds and equities to support the currency, although foreign holdings remain small compared to U.S. assets [2]. He also notes that China is less exposed to energy bottlenecks than other North and East Asian peers, which may help maintain currency stability in the near term [2].
Both sources point to policy support and improved market sentiment as key drivers of stable and rising global usage of the Renminbi and Yuan. Standard Chartered emphasizes the role of the 15th Five-Year Plan and trade negotiations, while BNY focuses on portfolio flows, asset resilience, and official currency management [1][2]. BNY further suggests that, over the long term, greater access and capital market reform could attract improved allocations to Chinese assets within global portfolios, though the current base is too small to significantly impact U.S. portfolio allocations [2].
CONCLUSION
Both Standard Chartered and BNY report stable and improving demand for the Renminbi and Yuan, supported by policy initiatives, asset resilience, and normalization of currency positioning. While global usage is expected to rise, foreign holdings in Chinese assets remain modest compared to U.S. assets. The market takeaway is cautiously positive, with steady performance and gradual appreciation anticipated.