During the early Asian session on Thursday, the EUR/USD pair remained steady around 1.1590 as financial markets turned cautious ahead of US President Donald Trump's scheduled address on the Iran war at 01:00 GMT. This speech marks Trump's first major national address on the conflict since the joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February. According to a White House official, Trump is expected to highlight US military successes and reiterate a two- to three-week timeline for concluding the operation [1][2].
Gold prices (XAU/USD) surged to near $4,775, driven by a weakening US Dollar and easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, the upside for gold may be limited as the US-Iran war has heightened inflation expectations and prompted markets to reassess global interest rate outlooks. Trump claimed in a Truth Social post that Iran's president requested a ceasefire, but Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson denied this assertion as false and baseless [2]. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, contributing to surging energy prices and inflation concerns [2].
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75% following its March 17-18, 2026 meeting. The median 'dot plot' projection still suggests one 25-basis-point rate cut later in 2026, though some officials now expect no cuts at all this year [2]. Meanwhile, financial markets are pricing in a higher probability of European Central Bank (ECB) tightening, with a 76% chance of a 25-basis-point increase by June 2026. Major banks such as J.P. Morgan and Barclays have revised their forecasts to include up to three ECB rate hikes this year [1].
Upcoming US economic data releases, including weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), are in focus. Weaker-than-expected results could further weaken the US Dollar and support USD-denominated assets like gold in the near term [1][2]. Easing tensions between the US and Iran could improve market sentiment, potentially weighing on the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset and benefiting the EUR/USD pair [1].
CONCLUSION
Markets are closely watching President Trump's address on the Iran war for signals on geopolitical and economic direction. While EUR/USD remains steady, gold has rallied on a softer US Dollar and inflation concerns. The outcome of Trump's speech and upcoming US economic data releases are likely to influence market sentiment and asset prices in the near term.