According to OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong, the USD/JPY currency pair remained range-bound following a mildly hawkish hold by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which kept its policy rate at 0.75% [1]. Initial gains in the Japanese Yen (JPY) were erased due to cautious guidance from the BoJ and persistently high oil prices [1]. The strategists highlight that sustained high oil prices are likely to limit any downside for USD/JPY below 158 [1].
On the upside, OCBC notes that any rallies in USD/JPY into the 160s could trigger intervention by the Ministry of Finance (MoF), with the aim of pushing the pair back toward 155 [1]. The bank maintains a cautious stance on the JPY and reiterates its end-2026 USD/JPY target of 155 [1].
No immediate market reaction or analyst opinions beyond the risk of intervention and the stated target were discussed in the article [1].
CONCLUSION
USD/JPY is expected to remain within a defined range, with high oil prices supporting the pair and potential MoF intervention capping rallies. OCBC maintains a cautious outlook on the Yen, targeting USD/JPY at 155 by end-2026.