Hyundai Motor is expected to outsell Ford Motor in U.S. quarterly sales for the first time ever, according to a new Cox Automotive forecast released on September 24, 2026. Cox analysts predict Hyundai will report a 6.5% year-over-year sales increase from July through September, reaching 511,421 units, while Ford is forecasted to see a 7.1% decline, selling 504,172 new vehicles in the third quarter [1]. This anticipated shift would make Hyundai the third best-selling automaker in the U.S., trailing only General Motors and Toyota Motor [1].
The forecast highlights a broader trend in the U.S. automotive market, where hybrid vehicles are gaining traction amid elevated gas prices. Ford and General Motors are experiencing sales lag due to their limited hybrid offerings, while Toyota, a leader in hybrids, is narrowing its sales gap with GM, the current top seller. GM is expected to report a year-over-year sales decline of 5.2% to 671,706 units, according to Cox [1]. Ford's hybrid lineup includes the Maverick and F-150 pickup trucks, while GM only offers a hybrid version of its Corvette [1].
Hyundai's success is attributed to its continued focus on product quality and execution, as stated by CEO José Muñoz, who emphasized that surpassing Ford is not a specific goal but a result of the company's dedication to delivering high-quality, safe vehicles [1]. Hyundai's growth also includes its luxury Genesis brand and corporate sibling Kia, both making significant inroads in the U.S. market this year [1]. Ford, on the other hand, has faced production challenges, particularly with its F-Series pickup trucks, due to supplier fires last year that disrupted output and sales [1].
Cox Automotive raised its 2026 forecast for new vehicle sales by roughly 2%, projecting 16.1 million units for the year, reflecting the market's resilience despite year-over-year declines in both new and used sales. "The automotive market this year has been pretty resilient," said Jeremy Robb, Cox chief economist, noting that sales are down but not significantly [1]. Erin Keating, a Cox executive analyst, added that manufacturers lacking hybrid vehicles risk losing market share to competitors who can meet consumer demand [1].
CONCLUSION
Hyundai is expected to overtake Ford in U.S. quarterly sales for the first time, driven by strong hybrid demand and production challenges at Ford. The shift underscores the growing importance of hybrid offerings in the automotive market, with Toyota also closing in on GM's sales lead. Analysts suggest that automakers must adapt to changing consumer preferences to maintain market share.