According to analysts Ryan McKay and Bart Melek at TD Securities, gold and broader precious metals are expected to remain stable within a higher trading range in the near term. This outlook comes despite a notable slowdown in inflows from systematic funds, macro discretionary funds, Asian speculators, and ETFs, as well as a recent uptick in interest rates following liquidity measures implemented the previous day [1].
The analysts highlight that support for the long end of the Treasury curve and a Federal Reserve that appears tolerant of higher energy prices are providing near-term support for gold prices. However, they caution that the next significant upward move for gold is likely to be delayed until there is greater market conviction that the Fed will remain on hold, as the market is still pricing in potential rate hikes for 2027 [1].
TD Securities notes that while the current environment is supportive, the lack of strong inflows and ongoing uncertainty regarding the Fed's policy stance are preventing gold from breaking out to new highs at this time [1].
CONCLUSION
Gold is consolidating within an elevated trading range, supported by Treasury actions and a Fed tolerant of higher energy prices. However, further upside is likely on hold until the market is more convinced of a prolonged Fed pause, with inflows and rate expectations remaining key factors.