Crude oil prices experienced a sharp initial drop following headlines of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, with one-month futures falling more than $16 to $94 per barrel. However, this decline was only partially reversed as renewed tensions and the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz led to minimal price action, with crude closing at around $96 per barrel, according to Rabobank strategist Molly Schwartz [1]. Schwartz notes that the temporarily lower crude level could cushion future price spikes if hostilities resume, and suggests that markets may be factoring in a tactical U.S. strategy [1].
Despite the ceasefire, shipping and maritime experts report that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has not normalized and is unlikely to do so in the near future. The fragile truce has not restored confidence among tanker operators, with only four transits recorded on Wednesday, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence [2]. Over 400 oil-laden tankers and dozens of LNG or LPG carriers remain anchored outside the Gulf, awaiting signals for passage, as reported by MarineTraffic [2]. The actual number of transits may be higher due to tankers turning off their transponders, but volumes remain a fraction of pre-war levels [2].
President Donald Trump stated that the ceasefire is contingent on the "complete, immediate, and safe opening" of the Strait, which typically carries around one-fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies [2]. Vice President JD Vance reiterated that Iran has agreed to open the Strait, but Iran has made it clear that reopening is conditional and subject to coordination with its armed forces and technical limitations [2]. Maritime research firm Windward emphasized that transit conditions, toll arrangements, and the legal framework for passage remain undefined, deterring ship owners from using the waterway [2].
Nils Haupt of Hapag-Lloyd, one of the world's largest shipping firms, stated that "returning to normal for our industry is weeks away," and the company is currently refraining from transiting the Strait based on its latest risk assessment [2]. Windward added that the first 48 hours of the ceasefire will be crucial to shipowners' willingness to enter the Strait, but all signs point to Iran maintaining leverage during the two-week period [2].
Rabobank's Schwartz suggests that a well-received ceasefire announcement could soothe markets and inflationary expectations, as well as depress the price of oil, which has occurred for the time being. However, she cautions that if the Trump Administration chooses to ramp up offensive measures, any price jump may be mitigated by the current suppressed crude level [1].
CONCLUSION
The fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has led to a temporary dip in oil prices but has not restored confidence in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. With tanker traffic still at a fraction of pre-war levels and market participants wary of renewed hostilities, the situation remains highly uncertain. Market normalization is expected to take weeks, with significant risks persisting for both energy prices and global supply chains.