Societe Generale analysts report that the UK experienced a quiet week, with the March RICS housing survey indicating a slowdown across most components. This slowdown is attributed to declining consumer confidence caused by the ongoing energy shock, the withdrawal of numerous mortgage deals, and rising mortgage rates [1]. The Bank of England’s Credit Conditions Survey, conducted from 23 February to 13 March, captured the effects of the energy shock. Despite this, the survey suggested that banks expect demand for and the availability of secured household and corporate credit to increase in the second quarter of 2026, which Societe Generale finds unlikely given the tightening financial conditions and declining confidence [1].
Upcoming Bank of England speeches from members including Bailey, Greene, Taylor, and Mann are expected to be the final public remarks before the blackout period ahead of the 30 April Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. Societe Generale anticipates that the Committee will keep rates on hold at this meeting. Last week, Bailey pushed back against market pricing of rate hikes, although approximately 40 basis points of hikes remain priced in by the market [1].
Societe Generale projects a modest 0.1% month-on-month increase in February GDP. The BRC’s March retail sales index is also being closely watched to assess consumer resilience amid higher fuel costs and declining confidence [1]. There is speculation about whether Taylor, considered one of the more dovish members, might signal openness to a rate cut as early as the April meeting, especially in light of a tentative ceasefire agreement [1].
CONCLUSION
Societe Generale expects the Bank of England to keep rates unchanged at the upcoming MPC meeting, citing weaker UK data and declining consumer confidence. Market pricing still reflects expectations for rate hikes, but recent BoE communication has pushed back against this view. The outlook remains cautious, with analysts closely monitoring upcoming speeches and key economic indicators.