The US Dollar experienced a notable rebound, with the USD/CHF currency pair rising by over 0.40% late Thursday, trading at 0.8088 after bouncing off daily lows of 0.8045 [1]. This movement was attributed to a combination of risk aversion, heightened tensions in the Middle East, and stronger-than-expected US economic data [1]. Specifically, US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 208,000, outperforming expectations of 217,000 and the previous reading of 216,000, which provided support for the Greenback [2]. However, US Retail Sales growth slowed to 0.2% month-over-month in June from a previous 1.0%, which limited the Dollar's advance [2].
Technical analysis indicates that the USD/CHF reversed course after testing the March 31 high-turned-support at 0.8042, with momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggesting that bulls are regaining strength. The RSI, after briefly touching the 50-neutral level, is now aiming toward 60, indicating a potential continuation of the uptrend [1]. Should USD/CHF climb above 0.8100, it could test the August 1, 2025 daily peak at 0.8171 and the June 4, 2025 high at 0.8250. Conversely, a drop below 0.8100 could see the pair test the psychological 0.8000 level, with further support at the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7967 and the 200-day SMA at 0.7919 [1].
Currency heat maps from both sources confirm that the US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound, while the Swiss Franc was also relatively strong against the Pound [1][2]. The USD gained approximately 0.41% to 0.42% against the Swiss Franc, according to both sources [1][2]. Broader market reactions included declines in oil and gold prices, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil falling toward $79.00 per barrel (down around 1.6%) and gold dropping sharply toward $3,982 (down almost 2%) as the US Dollar rebounded [2].
Looking ahead, investors are awaiting the final Eurozone inflation report, with expectations for core HICP inflation to remain at 2.4% year-over-year and headline inflation forecast at -0.1% month-over-month [2]. No specific forward-looking analyst opinions on USD/CHF were provided in the sources.
CONCLUSION
Stronger-than-expected US labor data has fueled a rebound in the US Dollar, pushing USD/CHF above 0.8080 and signaling renewed bullish momentum. While technical indicators point to the potential for further gains, softer US retail sales and ongoing geopolitical risks may temper the advance. Market participants remain attentive to upcoming inflation data and broader risk sentiment.