West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on NYMEX traded near $89.50 during the European session on Monday, struggling to maintain levels above $90 despite ongoing material supply risks in the global energy market [1]. The selling pressure comes as financial markets react to heightened tensions between the United States and Iran, following Iran's attack on three oil tankers attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. This action was reportedly in retaliation for US attacks on Iranian tankers, according to Bloomberg [1].
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for nearly 20% of global energy supply, and renewed US-Iran strikes on commercial shipping have raised concerns about prolonged disruptions to Middle East energy flows, as noted by analysts at Danske Bank [1]. ING strategists highlighted that the oil market remains "well-supported with little sign of a peace between the US and Iran," and warned that Tehran's plans to enforce a new restricted zone outside the Hormuz could put additional vessels in the Gulf of Oman at risk [1].
On the supply side, OPEC+ kept its oil output policy unchanged for October, with Reuters reporting that the group is likely to pause further output increases in Q4 while reviewing 2027 quota baselines [1]. Danske Bank cautioned that OPEC+'s ability to steer actual supply and prices remains limited as long as the Iran conflict continues to disrupt flows through the Strait of Hormuz [1].
From a technical perspective, WTI US Oil trades at $89.74, maintaining a bullish near-term bias above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $85.27. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 63 indicates firm but not overbought bullish momentum, suggesting that dips may attract buying interest while price stays above the short-term average. Immediate support is seen at $89.74, with stronger backing at the 20-day EMA, and resistance at the intraday high of $91.09 and a three-month high at $92.25 [1].
CONCLUSION
WTI oil prices remain volatile amid escalating US-Iran tensions and supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz, with technical indicators pointing to underlying bullish momentum. OPEC+'s unchanged output policy and limited ability to influence supply further highlight the market's sensitivity to geopolitical developments. Investors should monitor ongoing Middle East tensions for potential impacts on energy flows and oil prices.